Division of Roles Between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi: The “Southern Transitional Council” and “Homeland Shield” as Rival Instruments of Influence

Reshaping Yemen from the East: A Local Conflict with Open-Ended Regional and International Dimensions
Eastern Yemen on a Hot Plate: Regional Influence Struggles and the Redrawing of Political Geography
Hadramawt and Al-Mahrah at the Heart of the Conflict: Oil and Ports as the Title of the Regional Battle

In recent days and weeks, the eastern governorates of Hadramawt and Al-Mahrah have witnessed rapid and decisive field developments, carrying clear indications of profound shifts in the political and security landscape—not only at the level of the eastern regions, but across Yemen as a whole.

These developments, which on the surface appear to be limited military movements, in fact reveal an intense regional struggle and a precise re-engineering of power balances, closely linked to the management of oil resources and maritime outlets, and to political projects that extend far beyond Yemen’s geography.

The Spark of Tension and the Beginning of Escalation

The roots of the latest tension date back to early December, when the so-called “Hadramawt Tribal Alliance”—which promotes an independent Hadrami identity and declares loyalty to the mercenary government in Aden backed by the Saudi occupation—launched a pre-emptive attack in the Ghail Bin Yamin area, southwest of Wadi Hadramawt.

This move aimed to prevent the advance of the “Hadramawt Special Forces” backed by the Emirati occupation and affiliated with the so-called Southern Transitional Council, which seeks southern secession. The result was a sharp escalation in clashes and the entry of the situation into a far more complex phase.

In recent days, the conflict took another turn as militias of the so-called “Transitional Council” seized positions previously held by the so-called “First Military Region” in Wadi Hadramawt. Units affiliated with the so-called “Second Military Region,” alongside Transitional Council militias, advanced into the cities of Seiyun and Al-Qatn, taking control of the Republican Palace and several vital facilities—an action that represented both a symbolic and practical blow to the previous arrangements in the governorate.

The Hadramawt Tribal Alliance and Behind-the-Scenes Agreements

In response to this advance, the Hadramawt Tribal Alliance, led by Sheikh Amr bin Habrish, adopted a cautious stance, prioritizing the protection of oil fields as a top concern.

This position indirectly suggested that the fall of the “First Military Region” occurred within the framework of undisclosed understandings, mediated by the Saudi occupier through a delegation headed by Mohammed bin Ubaid Al-Qahtani. Available indicators suggest these understandings included the redeployment of coalition forces and “elite forces” near oil company areas, and the integration of Hadramawt security forces into a unified structure to secure facilities. This reflects a shift from open military confrontation to a security reorganization tied to oil-wealth management and the neutralization of tribal forces within a broader plan.

Developments were not confined to Hadramawt. Al-Mahrah governorate witnessed a similar scene, as “southern forces” took control of the airport, seaport, and Republican Palace in Al-Ghaydah with little to no fighting, and without any clear reaction from the mercenary government in Aden.

This suspicious calm reinforces the hypothesis of prior arrangements and confirms that what is unfolding goes beyond direct military maneuvers to a redistribution of roles among regional actors.

Division of Roles Between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi

In this context, an undeclared division of roles between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates becomes evident. The “Southern Transitional Council” functions as an effective Emirati tool for rapidly altering power balances, while the “Homeland Shield” forces represent a Saudi instrument aimed at containing Emirati influence and preventing its full domination of southern Yemen.

Hadramawt and Al-Mahrah hold particular importance for Riyadh due to their long land borders, maritime outlets, and energy resources. Meanwhile, the Hadramawt tribal alliance has been integrated into a new framework granting it a functional role in protecting oil facilities.

Hadramawt is Yemen’s largest governorate, comprising roughly one-third of the country’s territory. It is rich in oil and gas reserves estimated at billions of dollars, in addition to strategic ports on the Arabian Sea and extended borders with Saudi Arabia.

Estimates indicate that the oil and gas sector accounts for between 60 and 70 percent of the revenues of the mercenary government in Aden, making control over Hadramawt a vital economic artery for any actor seeking influence.

The Collapse of a Fragile Balance

For a long time, Hadramawt was nominally under the authority of