American Academic: The Iran Deal Is a Historic Strategic Defeat for Washington Since Vietnam

In a striking assessment reflecting the magnitude of the shifts brought about by the recent confrontation, American academic and founder of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST), Robert Pape, described the announced agreement between the United States and Iran as a major strategic defeat for Washington, the most significant since the Vietnam War.

In a blog post published Wednesday on the X platform, Pape explained that the United States’ acceptance of the agreement’s terms reflects an unprecedented decline in its strategic position, while Iran has risen as an influential power on the international stage. He believes that what has transpired establishes Tehran as the fourth power within the global system.

He pointed out that the agreement’s terms impose a new reality in the region, the most prominent features of which are the guarantee against any future attacks on Iran, the complete lifting of US sanctions, and the consolidation of full Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. This represents a radical shift in the regional and international balance of power.

This assessment comes after Washington accepted the ten-point Iranian plan as a basis for negotiations and a ceasefire, after Tehran had previously rejected a fifteen-point American proposal and insisted on its own vision as a precondition for any agreement.

Observers believe these developments reflect a shift in the conflict from direct military confrontation to the imposition of new political realities. Through this, Iran has successfully translated its military resilience and internal cohesion into strategic gains, at a time when the United States faces increasing challenges in maintaining its traditional influence in the region.