From Hormuz to the bases… Iran draws a new deterrence equation and thwarts Washington’s bets

The confrontation between Iran and the United States is no longer limited to mutual strikes or sporadic military messages, but has entered a new phase in which the circle of engagement is widening and the rules of the game are changing, after Tehran moved from a position of self-defense to establishing a clear deterrence equation that extends from the Strait of Hormuz to the American military bases spread throughout the region.

In response to the American escalation and targeting of Iranian sites, the Iranian responses confirmed that Washington is no longer able to impose its equations by force, and that the geography it has relied on for decades as platforms for military dominance is now present in the bank of retaliatory calculations.

Hormuz… the symbol of sovereignty
The Strait of Hormuz is at the heart of recent developments as one of the most important keys to confrontation, given its strategic importance in the movement of energy and global trade.

The Iranian army stressed that the armed forces would not compromise “one iota” regarding the Strait, emphasizing that its reopening could not be achieved through threats or military pressure, but rather through respecting the rights of the Iranian people and adhering to existing understandings.

This stance reflects that Tehran views the Strait of Hormuz as part of its national security, and that any attempt to impose a new reality there will be met with a decisive response, in a direct message to the United States and its allies that the era of unilateral control over vital waterways is over.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard also announced that two giant oil tankers were damaged and disabled after ignoring warnings issued by the Strait of Hormuz Security Control Center, stressing that protecting the security of the Strait of Hormuz will remain a direct Iranian responsibility.

Present reply
Iranian moves were not limited to the Strait of Hormuz, but extended to sites of American military presence in the region, in a development that reflects the widening range of response options.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that it had carried out operations targeting US military facilities at the Juffair base in Bahrain, including sites for arms support and communications, while the Iranian army announced that it had targeted US military facilities in Kuwait, in addition to targeting a ship linked to the United States with cruise missiles.

The Revolutionary Guard also announced that it had targeted an American military site inside an airbase in Jordan, stressing that these operations come as a response to American attacks, and that the continued use of military bases in the region to target Iran will make it a target.

Thus, Iran is shifting the confrontation from specific arenas to a broader equation whose title is: any aggression will not remain confined to its place, and any military presence used against it will be part of the calculations for retaliation.

Washington bases under attack
The American bases spread throughout the Gulf and the region have always been one of the most prominent tools of influence that Washington has relied on to impose its military and political presence, but recent developments have raised the question of the ability to protect this deployment in the event of an escalation of the confrontation.

The Iranian operations carried a message that these bases are no longer immune to the repercussions of American policies, and that turning the region into a platform for targeting countries and peoples will be met with responses targeting the sources of this aggression.

In this context, Washington appears to be facing a new equation that differs from past decades, as military power alone is no longer sufficient to impose conditions, given that Iran possesses diverse deterrent tools and the ability to reach locations that the United States considers to be advanced lines of its influence.

New phase
All developments reveal that the region has entered a new phase in which the United States’ ability to manage the situation from behind military bases is declining, in contrast to the rise of an Iranian deterrence equation that links its national security with the security of the region.

From Hormuz to the bases, the Iranian message has become clear: continued American escalation will not go unpunished, and any attempt to impose hegemony will be met with a response that extends to sites of influence and power.

With the escalation continuing, the region appears to be facing an open test between a project that seeks to consolidate American hegemony, and a regional axis that affirms its commitment to sovereignty and rejects turning the region into an open arena for foreign powers.