Recognition of “Somaliland”: What Are Israel’s Five Objectives—and Why Are Saudi Arabia and Egypt the Biggest Losers?

Israel’s recognition yesterday of the so-called “State of Somaliland” and the establishment of diplomatic relations with it constitutes a clear confirmation of the fragmentation and partition strategy that Israel pursues in the region. This move poses a serious threat to the territorial unity and national security of regional states—particularly those bordering the Red Sea or geographically linked to the Horn of Africa—starting with Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Egypt, Yemen, and extending as far north as Jordan.

This “surprise” recognition, which entrenches and endorses the division of the Arab and Muslim state of Somalia, cannot occur “without a price.” Israel is known not only for parsimony, but also for coercive bargaining and for its geostrategic ambitions, which rest on a doctrine of giving little in order to gain much—materially, politically, and militarily.

The occupying state seeks to secure several military and strategic gains at the expense of Arabs, Muslims, and African neighbors. These can be summarized as follows:

First: Israel has long had plans to deport hundreds of thousands of Gaza Strip residents to “Somaliland.” The Netanyahu government reportedly conducted early secret contacts with the “president” of this breakaway entity—which declared secession from the mother state in 1991 amid the chaos following the U.S.-backed overthrow of President Mohamed Siad Barre—in exchange for accepting displaced Gazans. Leaks indicate that air and sea transfer plans are now ready for practical implementation.

Second: Israel aims to establish a military foothold in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Gulf of Aden, setting up bases to control the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea, as well as adjacent islands—whether Socotra or uninhabited islands on the western side facing Yemen, which has become an open resistance front against Israeli occupation. Israeli airstrikes have failed to halt Yemeni hypersonic or multi-warhead missiles, which shut down Lod (Ben Gurion) Airport in Jaffa and Ramon Airport in the Negev, sending millions of settlers to shelters on an almost daily basis for two years.

Third: Securing Israel’s maritime trade routes to Asia and East Africa, which account for approximately 85% of its exports. This navigation has been completely halted due to the closure of the Red Sea to Israeli commercial and military vessels by Yemeni forces and missiles in solidarity with fighters in Gaza.

Fourth: Israeli leverage over the Suez Canal and the coercion of Egyptian authorities, alongside providing protection for Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam through an Israeli military presence in the heart of the Horn of Africa—namely, bases agreed upon in return for recognition.

Fifth: Threatening all Arab oil exports—whether those transiting the Strait of Hormuz, or exports from Emirati, Saudi, Omani, and Yemeni ports on the Arabian Sea, or even Saudi exports via pipelines built by Riyadh from Gulf oil fields to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea to avoid passage through Hormuz (controlled by Iran) or Bab al-Mandab (controlled by Yemeni authorities in Sana’a).

The two Arab states most threatened by this aggressive Israeli move—namely Israel’s penetration into the southern Red Sea via the “mini-state” of Somaliland—are Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Their strategic national security will be directly endangered by Israel. Regrettably, both have once again confined their response to condemnation and denunciation, as they did when confronting Israeli fragmentation schemes targeting brotherly Sudan and the ensuing tragedies.

It was expected that Egypt and Saudi Arabia would immediately call for an urgent Arab-African summit to adopt a unified stance and devise plans to preempt this dangerous Israeli incursion into the Horn of Africa and the gateways of the Red and Arabian seas—threatening the security and territorial integrity of the sister state of Somalia, a member of both the Arab League and the African Union.

The fragmentation of Somalia following the fragmentation of Sudan—with Syria next in line—fits within a meticulously prepared Israeli-American plan. Recognition of “Somaliland” may be its first official, practical application, and could serve as a prelude to the fragmentation of Saudi Arabia itself, Yemen, and possibly Egypt, with recognition of emerging mini-states. The notion of a “State of South Yemen” with Aden as its capital is resurfacing forcefully, potentially followed by Hadramawt, Al-Mahrah, and Socotra—through independence or forced annexation. Nor should one forget the Kurdish “SDF statelet” in northeastern and western Syria.

The picture is bleak and alarming. Official Arab complacency is at its peak, while Israeli expansionism grows with American backing.
God is our witness.